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Negociando o autoritarismo em Cuba? |
Escrito por Indicado en la materia |
Lunes, 15 de Septiembre de 2014 01:51 |
Por Rafael Rojas.- O Governo de Raúl Castro conseguiu com que a comunidade internacional, incluindo a atual Administração norte-americana, entenda que o caminho das reformas na ilha é frágil. A América Latina, a União Europeia e, em menor medida, os Estados Unidos, estão propiciando uma negociação com Havana diante do medo de uma marcha-a-ré, que se insinua com frequência, ou a diversos cenários alarmantes que o próprio Governo contempla, e convencidos de que esses passos para o mercado, tímidos e mal planejados, são preferíveis ao imobilismo ou regressão que caracterizaram os últimos anos de Fidel Castro. O que negociam? Desde os anos oitenta e noventa, quando ex-presidentes como Felipe González, Carlos Andrés Pérez ou Carlos Salinas de Gortari sondavam algum entendimento com a ilha, se entendia que a finalidade era a normalização de relações com os Estados Unidos e uma transição para a democracia. Eram os anos da democratização do Leste Europeu e a América Latina, da Espanha e Portugal, e poucos no Ocidente colocavam em dúvida que o desenlace do conflito cubano seria o mesmo. Vinte anos depois, em um mundo no qual os autoritarismos subalternos se consolidam e o capitalismo de Estado se estende para boa pare do planeta, os termos da negociação mudaram. A comunidade internacional parece pensar que, antes que a democracia, é preciso que Cuba transite para o autoritarismo e ao mercado, preservando intacto seu regime político. A América Latina e a Europa o aceitaram, tacitamente, no processo de integração da ilha na CELAC e no diálogo em curso entre Havana e Bruxelas. Não se trata de dizer que a Europa ou a América Latina tenham renunciado à ideia de uma democracia em Cuba. As chancelarias ocidentais decidiram negociar a partir de uma leitura mais precisa da realidade insular. Pensam que uma transição ao autoritarismo permitiria, além de acelerar o crescimento do setor não estatal da economia, flexibilizar ainda mais as relações entre o Estado e a sociedade civil, tal e como ocorreu com a Igreja católica nos últimos anos. Essa flexibilização, concluem, intensificará o pluralismo civil e, eventualmente, favorecerá a democratização do país. O Ocidente negocia o autoritarismo em Cuba, como estação de uma ida gradual e, sobretudo, “ordenada” para a democracia. O problema é que não é isso, precisamente, o que está negociando o Governo de Raúl Castro. O que Havana busca, de acordo com seus principais líderes, é apoio financeiro para deixar consolidada uma nova ordem social e política, de acordo com o novo capitalismo de Estado; e que sobrevida à renovação geracional na cúpula, que deverá decidir entre 2017 e 2018, se é que tem lugar no próximo processo eleitoral, como anunciou Raúl Castro, ou quando quer que ocorra a sucessão presidencial. A mensagem que Havana transmite para as chancelarias internacionais é a seguinte: ajudem a introduzir o mercado em Cuba, que nós faremos o possível para deixar nossas instituições mais plurais. Isso significa, nem mais nem menos, que os governantes da ilha e seus sucessores não contemplam, de modo algum, uma reforma política. No máximo, uma renovação geracional e uma maior representatividade da heterogeneidade social do país dentro do mesmo regime de partido único, oposição ilegítima e controle governamental da esfera pública e da sociedade civil. Que outras opções tem a diplomacia ocidental? Romper o diálogo? Estabelecer premissas fantasiosas como o multipartidarismo, o Estado de direito ou um plesbicito, que um totalitarismo como o cubano jamais aceitaria? Subordinar o intercâmbio comercial ou a cooperação multilateral à denúncia da violação dos direitos humanos na ilha ou a inconcebível aceitação de sua natureza repressora, por parte do Governo de Raúl Castro? Essas opções têm a ver com a ideologia e a moral, mas não com a diplomacia. Há dez anos, a Europa e a América Latina se relacionavam com um Governo cubano, encabeçado por Fidel Castro, que não tinha interesse em negociação alguma e que priorizava a “revolução bolivariana” na América Latina. Havia na época, na ilha, uma oposição com um importante prestígio internacional, cuja base social foi encarcerada e submetida às longas condenações na primavera de 2003, despertando a solidariedade de boa parte da opinião pública mundial. Hoje, os opositores da ilha seguem sofrendo repressão. Em cada fim de semana chegam notícias de agressões, prisões preventivas e assédio contra as Damas de Branco. Mas vários líderes opositores, de todas as gerações, realizaram viagens frequentes nos últimos dois anos e, no seu retorno para a ilha, continuaram seu ativismo. O impacto da atividade oposicionista, dentro e fora da ilha, diminuiu por conta da fatal combinação de flexibilidade limitada e repressão sistemática. A crise da oposição cubana e o fim do exílio nas políticas tradicionais de Washington, que não são compartilhadas nem pela União Europeia, nem pela América Latina, informam também da leitura da realidade cubana que abre caminho na diplomacia ocidental. O risco que tal leitura coloca nas democracias europeias e latino-americanas é o de animar, sob a promessa de uma ida escalonada para a democracia, a entronização de um autoritarismo que não ofereça garantias para o exercício de uma oposição legítima e pacífica na ilha. Não falo de garantias plenas, que somente são oferecidas na democracia, mas das garantias mínimas que distinguem os autoritarismos. A modalidade autoritária que poderia sair da atual negociação entre Cuba, América Latina e a Europa é uma com maiores limitações para a pequena e média empresa, para a associação civil e política e para o acesso da cidadania na Internet e à imprensa alternativa que existe em outros países comunistas, como a China ou o Vietnã. O saldo da negociação, se a comunidade internacional se desentender da situação dos direitos políticos na ilha, poderia ser um autoritarismo de segundo grau, comandado por uma elite militar-empresarial, que já controla vários setores fundamentais da economia nacional e que, com a hegemonia política que as leis asseguram dentro das instituições civis e administrativas, poderia definir a forma do Governo cubano durante boa parte do século XXI. Seria, resumidamente, uma mudança de regime; a finalidade ou a aspiração que, no Código Penal e na imprensa oficial da ilha constituem um delito, pelo que se reprime ou estigmatiza os opositores, como “agentes de uma potência estrangeira”. Mas uma mudança de regime, do totalitarismo ao autoritarismo, com o apoio de outras potências estrangeiras, pelo que seus principais artífices não terão que prestar contas para ninguém. EL PAIS; ESPANHA Rafael Rojas é um historiador cubano |
Última actualización el Miércoles, 24 de Septiembre de 2014 12:21 |
'Corriente y comida' también es 'PatriaIndicado en la materia Por RAFAELA CRUZ.- Es difícil encontrar una revolución de esas que han cambiado el destino de una nación o de la humanidad toda, que no haya cuajado a partir del infortunio económico ag... |
El rescate ruso de Cuba se evaporaIndicado en la materia Por EMILIO MORALES.- Mientras Cuba se apaga, las esperanzas sembradas por el PCC de un rescate financiero ruso a raíz del anuncio de que Cuba adoptaría el modelo ruso, se han desinflado a la... |
Raúl Castro: el general en su derrotaIndicado en la materia Por RAFAELA CRUZ.- Si se mezcla cobardía patológica con nulidad intelectual se obtiene un Raúl Castro. Lo de este general con más estrellas en la charretera que tiros disparados en combate —s... |
En Cuba sí que hay una crisis humanitariIndicado en la materia Por ROBERTO ÁLVAREZ QUIÑONES.- ¿Cuál es la definición internacional de crisis humanitaria? Con total exactitud no hay ninguna. El consenso en Naciones Unidas y entre los expertos es que hay una crisis hu... |
La “Revolución Cubana”, un bodrio carentIndicado en la materia Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.- Todo lo mal hecho se justifica en la Cuba de los hermanos Castro como siendo producto de lo que la dictadura llama “bloqueo imperialista” de los Estados Un... |
La llamada “Revolución Cubana” fracasóIndicado en la materia Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.- No solamente la “Revolución Cubana” fracasó, como que es una verdadera vergüenza que hombres que tuvieron el coraje de alzarse en armas contra una dictadura política (si ... |
Cuba: La isla de los sueños traicionadosIndicado en la materia Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.- Existe en la Cuba castrista actual una decisión firme: cambiar su régimen económicamente socialista y estatista, a un régimen capitalista mafioso estilo ruso. Será capitalista porque se re... |
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