Biden y la futura política de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba, Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca

Vivimos en EUA aquellos millones de cubano-americanos tomados como ejemplo por el ...

A los pies del Cristo Redentor, Brasil comenzó la campaña de vacunación contra el coronavirus

El gobierno de Brasil adelantó para este lunes el lanzamiento de su ...

El régimen de Maduro emitió una orden de captura contra dos directivos de Citgo designados por Guaid

El régimen de Nicolás Maduro emitió una orden de captura contra dos ...

Cuáles son los principales objetivos de Joe Biden para los primeros 100 días de su presidencia

A dos días de que Joe Biden tome posesión como presidente de ...

Butantan pede à China agilidade na liberação de insumos para novas doses da CoronaVac

O Instituto Butantan pediu ao governo chinês agilidade na liberação de insumos ...

A direita silenciosa e outras cinco possíveis surpresas nas eleições na Espanha, segundo as pesquisas PDF Imprimir E-mail
Escrito por Indicado en la materia   
Domingo, 28 de Abril de 2019 12:47

Essas eleições gerais na Espanha são infernais para se fazer previsões. É o que dizem os dados das pesquisas: um punhado de votos pode abrir alternativas tanta à esquerda como à direita.

elecciones generales

Graças às pesquisas sabemos algumas coisas com certa segurança, como que o PSOE é o favorito após muitos anos e que um partido de direita radical entrará com força no Parlamento. Mas não podemos esperar que as pesquisas sejam precisas como um laser e respondam incógnitas que dependem do voto de 2% a 3% dos espanhóis. São incapazes, por exemplo, de dizer taxativamente se a terceira colocação será do Cidadãos, Vox ou Unidos Podemos. O instrumento não é tão preciso para isso.

 

 

Analisei 25 eleições na Espanha desde os anos oitenta para ter uma medida de quanto as pesquisas se desviam. Em média, o erro é de dois pontos por partido, mas na maioria das vezes se desviaram mais de três pontos com pelo menos um partido (como ocorreu na Andaluzia em dezembro e nas eleições gerais de 2015 e 2016, sem precisar ir mais longe). Esses erros, perfeitamente previsíveis, tornam imprevisível o resultado deste domingo.

Para demonstrar, na sequência elaboro seis possíveis surpresas e analiso quais seriam suas consequências em número de cadeiras. As cinco surpresas estão ordenadas com um critério subjetivo: as que parecem mais prováveis vêm na frente.

1. O Vox tem eleitores ocultos. A surpresa mais provável é um resultado melhor do Vox. As últimas pesquisas o colocaram em quinto, mas próximo da terceira colocação. Nosso modelo de previsão dava a eles uma chance em seis para ficar em terceiro, e as apostas e alguns mercados de previsão já o colocam aí. Outros sinais, como os atos de campanha e o barulho nas redes, mesmo não sendo determinantes, também são favoráveis ao Vox.

O argumento para explicar essa surpresa é que existe voto oculto. Há eleitores do Vox que poderíamos chamar de “escandalosos”, mas também podem existir outros reticentes a revelar seu voto quando são entrevistados. Esse fenômeno acontece menos vezes do que se anuncia – não ocorreu com Marine Le Pen e Donald Trump, por exemplo –, mas existe. Além disso, na Andaluzia existiram indícios de voto oculto: ainda que 11% dos eleitores tenham votado no Vox, na pesquisa pós-eleitoral do CIS só apareceram 7%.

Mas o que aconteceria nesse cenário? Simulei os resultados de cadeiras assumindo que o Vox subiria para 14% ou 15%, tirando votos principalmente do PP e do Cidadãos. O partido direitista certamente seria terceiro, mas as maiorias mudariam pouco. A direita estaria um pouco mais próxima das 176 cadeiras, mas não seria fácil chegar a esse número.

2. A direita sobe. Outra possível surpresa é que se repita o que aconteceu na Andaluzia e que a surpresa seja um voto à direita e silencioso. Parte da esquerda, à época, se absteve sem ter dado sinais disso. A tese mais aceita é que agora a situação é diferente, porque a questão catalã perdeu atenção e o Vox devolveu o protagonismo ao eixo esquerda – direita. Mas podemos estar enganados e os eleitores podem continuar votando à direita.

Elaborei um cenário em que o PP (21% de votos), o Cidadãos (16%) e o Vox (12%) sobem. Isso colocaria a direita acima da maioria, ainda que sem assegurá-la. São cenários como esse que fazem com que, segundo nosso modelo preferido, a direita tenha uma chance em 10 de obter maioria e governar. Outros prognósticos elevam suas opções para 20% de probabilidade.

3. O Podemos ressurge. Nessa semana ganhou força a hipótese da ressurreição do Unidos Podemos. O argumento principal é que Iglesias saiu fortalecido dos debates, mas também poderia estar recuperando indecisos com o esclarecimento de sua fronteira com o Compromís e o En Marea.

Nesse cenário assumo que o Podemos sobe para 16% ou 17% de votos, deixando o PSOE em 27% e tirando alguns décimos dos outros. A esquerda melhoraria seu resultado em votos, mas não está claro que isso se traduza em mais cadeiras – de acordo com meus cálculos, para cada cadeira obtida pelo Podemos, o PSOE perde o mesmo ou um pouco mais –. O que se reduz com a subida do Podemos são as opções de um pacto entre o PSOE e o Cidadãos.

4. Continuam as tendências de campanha. Esse cenário perdeu força desde segunda-feira, mas era uma hipótese lógica por ser parcimoniosa. Consiste em assumir que o PSOE continuaria subindo até 31% e que o Cidadãos baixaria de 14%.

Nesse caso, a esquerda melhoraria suas opções de se unir ao PNV, porque o PSOE teria por volta de 140 cadeiras e tiraria proveito do viés majoritário do sistema eleitoral. Além disso, se o Cidadãos se mantiver acima de 12% ou 13%, os dois partidos poderiam se unir.

5. O PP resiste novamente. Outra possibilidade é que o PP nos surpreenda, como aconteceu em 2015 e 2016, quando superou as pesquisas em um e três pontos. Simulei um cenário desse tipo, em que o PP teria 23% dos votos, reduzindo o Cidadãos (13%) e o Vox (10%). A questão principal é que um resultado assim não beneficia a soma da direita. O PP continuaria em segundo em muitas províncias e tanto o Vox como o Cidadãos teriam uma relação pior entre votos recebidos e cadeiras conquistadas. Aumentariam as opções para um bloqueio. A união do PSOE e do Cidadãos seria mais improvável e a esquerda teria mais dificuldades para conquistar 176 cadeiras, até mesmo contando com o PNV.

6. A surpresa de que não ocorram surpresas. A última possibilidade é que as pesquisas acertem totalmente o resultado de domingo. Nesse caso, a esquerda e a direita não teriam maioria fácil e as melhores opções seriam para Pedro Sánchez. O socialista teria a via de moção – contando com forças independentistas –, mas o resultado em algumas províncias poderia abrir duas outras alternativas: um pacto com o Cidadãos e um acordo com a esquerda que só precisaria agregar o PNV.

Paradoxalmente, é pouco provável que o resultado eleitoral coincida exatamente com os prognósticos. As pesquisas são a melhor previsão para cada partido separadamente, mas não é frequente acertarem com todos. Desde 1986 ocorreram 10 eleições gerais e somente em duas ocasiões a média de pesquisas acertou com todos os grandes partidos sem se desviar dos pontos com nenhum. A última vez foi em 2008, ainda em tempos de bipartidarismo.

É útil pensar nas surpresas de uma Copa do Mundo. Os melhores de cada grupo são os favoritos para as partidas eliminatórias, mas sabemos que sempre fica um pelo caminho. Acontece algo parecido com as eleições. É fácil acertar dizendo que “ocorrerão surpresas”, o difícil é acertar quais serão

Metodologia. Nosso cálculo de cadeiras vem de um processo em três passos: 1) partimos da média de pesquisas a nível nacional; 2) estimamos o voto em cada circunscrição a partir dessa média; e 3) calculamos as cadeiras de acordo com o método D’Hondt. Você pode ler os detalhes sobre a metodologia aqui.

EL PAIS; ESPANHA

Última actualización el Martes, 30 de Abril de 2019 00:03
 

Comments  

 
0 #1544 Mae 2021-01-19 06:00
Wonderful blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News.
Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there!
Many thanks

Here is my page - sleepdrean (Rogelio: http://adviceaboutblepharoplasty.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=www.kennethknee.com%2Fmediawiki%2Findex.php%2FUser%3AAugustaLininger)
Quote
 
 
0 #1543 Donnell 2021-01-18 21:29
My relatives always say thaat I am killing my
time here at web, however I know I am getting know-how all the time byy reading such nice content.

website: https://wangbox.net/vanilla/discussion/12871/article-n64-match-betting
Quote
 
 
0 #1542 Chester 2021-01-17 04:40
Whats up very cool web site!! Man .. Beautiful .. Wonderful ..
I'll bookmark your blog and take the feeds additionally?
I'm satisfied to seek out a lot of helpful info right here in the publish, we need develop extra
techniques in this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .

My page; Tembak Ikan Joker123: http://180.210.204.54/~joker123/
Quote
 
 
0 #1541 Delores 2021-01-16 01:27
Wow! This bblog looks exactly like my old one! It's on a compleely different topic but it has
pretty much the same layout and design.Outstanding choice off colors!

web
page: http://karlskronamakerspace.org/wiki/index.php?title=%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%8C_N67_%D0%9E_1XBet_-_%D0%9E%D1%84%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B9%D1%82_%D0%91%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0_1XBet.com
Quote
 
 
0 #1540 Alonzo 2021-01-15 03:05
Very descriptive article, I liked that a lot. Will
there be a part 2?
Esteroides webpage: http://bu1106ucl.bimserver2.com/uclwiki/index.php?title=Art%C3%ADculo_N96_-_Consejos_101_Sobre_C%C3%B3mo_Levantar_M%C3%BAsculo_R%C3%A1pido_-_Ejercicio
músculos y esteroides
Quote
 
 
0 #1539 Halina 2021-01-14 04:38
It's going to be finish of mine day, but before ending I am reading this fantastic paragraph to increase my knowledge.

web
page: http://orenwiki.ru/index.php/Post_N92:_Your_Sport_Betting_Business_With_Price_Per_Head_-_Gambling
Quote
 
 
0 #1538 Jett 2021-01-13 22:43
Hey, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your blog site in Ie, it looks fine but
when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that,
awesome blog!

Feel free to surf to my web site ... cheap cialis: http://the3eroticreview.net/info.php?a%5B%5D=%3Ca+href%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fcialisya.com%2F%3Ebuy+cialis+online%3C%2Fa%3E
Quote
 
 
0 #1537 Waylon 2021-01-13 02:47
I all the time emailed this weblog post page to all my contacts,
since if like to read it afterward my links will too.

Feel free to visit my web page; Money Spells: http://msx651840.blogofoto.com/27549599/how-to-be-aware-of-if-a-spell-is-operating
Quote
 
 
0 #1536 Giselle 2021-01-12 21:46
always i used to read smaller articles or reviews which also clear their motive,
and that is also happening with this article which I am reading
now.

Feel free to surf to my homepage: dnd feats: https://www.diigo.com/item/note/822nh/r3ao?k=6b85ec08517c4cda5591652f279090e0
Quote
 
 
0 #1535 Arnette 2021-01-12 21:36
There is certainly a lot to know about this subject.

I like all of the points you've made.
homepage: https://www.lsaforum.com/fluxbb/viewtopic.php?id=489786
Quote
 
 
0 #1534 Hermine 2021-01-12 17:48
Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend your web site, how can i subscribe for a blog site?
The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this
your broadcast offered bright clear concept

Here is my web site; Le
Favole - Cappuccetto Rosso: https://near-free-mp3.monster/download/le-favole-cappuccetto-rosso.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1533 Olga 2021-01-12 00:52
Heya i am foor the first time here. I found this
board and I find It truly useful & iit helped me out a lot.
I hope tto give something back and aid others like you helped me.

web site: http://m633746y.bget.ru/blog/24278.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1532 Harold 2021-01-11 20:42
It is appropriate time tto make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy.

I have learn this put up and iff I may just
I wish to counsel you some attention-grabbing issues or suggestions.
Perhaps you could write next articles regarding this article.
I wish to learn even more things approximately it!
site: http://www.e-la.fr/index.php?p=/discussion/22191/post-n34-o-kak-nayti-fifa-v-1xbet
Quote
 
 
0 #1531 Michelle 2021-01-11 05:27
Hi everyone, it's my first pay a quick visit at this web site,
and post is actually fruitful in support of me, keep up posting these types of articles or
reviews.
web page: http://www.freeglobalclassifiedads.com/user/profile/161498
Quote
 
 
0 #1530 Scot 2021-01-11 00:35
It's impressive that you are getting ideas from this paragraph as
well as from our discussion made here.

My blog Planet O - Rejam: https://mp3allstars.buzz/
Quote
 
 
0 #1529 Brayden 2021-01-10 11:59
You ought tto be a part of a contest for one of the best sites online.
I most certainlky will highly recommend this blog!
Calidad webpage: http://www.web-movimento.it/en/viewtopic.php?id=144940 Entrenamiento culturista
Quote
 
 
0 #1528 Cierra 2021-01-09 12:18
I am genuinely thankful to thhe holder of this site who has shared thiis great post at here.

Bombeo muscular para mujeres homepage: https://www.lsaforum.com/fluxbb/viewtopic.php?id=473344
curso de culturista
Quote
 
 
0 #1527 Larae 2021-01-05 16:59
Incrediible points. Sound arguments. Keep up the
great spirit.
Carrocero site: http://forum.edenrising.com/discussion/592858/registro-n59-como-extender-su-ingesta-de-proteinas-sin-suplementos-suplementos hombre
fuerte
Quote
 
 
0 #1526 Hector 2020-12-30 07:31
Keep upp the good piece off work, I read few articles on this website and I conceive hat your web bog is real interesting annd holds circles of wonderful info.


My site state government auctions san francisco; Terry: https://Www.luo3.top/space.php?uid=14842&do=blog&id=27885,
Quote
 
 
0 #1525 Shavonne 2020-12-30 06:23
I really wanted to post a quick word so as to express gratitude to you for those fantastic concepts you
are placing here. My long internet search has now been compensated with
goid ideas to share with my family. I 'd state that that many of us readers are undeniably
endowed to exist in a wonderful place with very many special professionals
with good advice. I feel very much grateful to have encountered your entire webpage and look forward to tons of
more excellent minutes reading here. Thank you once more for all the details.



my web-site: corporate housing By
Owner: https://buydacha.ru/user/QBWTorsten/
Quote
 
 
0 #1524 Gretta 2020-12-30 06:02
I want to voice my appreciation for your generosity in support of
indivduals that really need guidance on tthat concept. Your
personal dedication to passing the message all through appeared to be certainly gokod and has constantly helped mwny people like me too
arrive at their targets. Your neww valuable guideline means a
great deal to me and somewhat more to my peers.
Thank you; from everyone of us.

my page: studybay.com.br: http://allsapr.ru/user/AlineWhiddon/
Quote
 
 
0 #1523 Brenton 2020-12-29 15:59
I am glad forr commeting to make you be aware of of the remarkale discovery ourr daughter
obtained studying your web site. She picked up soo many
details, which included how it is like to possess a very effective
coaching naturee to have the rext effortlessly know precisely specific tortuous topics.
You tuly did mode than our own expected results. Many thanks foor distributing such useful, healthy,
revealing and ven fun thoughts on that topic
to Tanya.

Feel free to surf to my blog ... big bull fx download - Jcomstory.Iptime.org: http://Jcomstory.Iptime.org/xe/QA/444520
-
Quote
 
 
0 #1522 Lucile 2020-12-29 14:52
Howdy just wante to give you a quick heads up. The text in your poist seem to be running off the screen in Safari.
I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to
do with web browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let
you know. The desig lok great though! Hope you
get tthe issue fixed soon. Manyy thanks

Feel free to surf to my homepage ...Illuminatural 6I Lotion: http://www.ancientsofia.bg/en/node/57646
Quote
 
 
0 #1521 Kendall 2020-12-29 05:01
Yoou made some good points there. I looked on the internet for the
subject and found most guys will consent with yourr blog.


my homepag home business skills (Jorg: http://karinform.uz/user/EmanuelTub/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1520 Kimberly 2020-12-29 04:09
What's up, after reading this remarkable article i am also
happy to share my knowledge here with mates.

Stop by my web site torture killer - faces of my victims mp3 free: https://mp3very.buzz/download/torture-killer-faces-of-my-victims.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1519 Rosaria 2020-12-29 01:49
First of all I would like to say superb blog! I had a quick question that
I'd like to ask if you don't mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your head prior to writing.
I have had trouble clearing my mind in getting my thoughts out.
I do ejoy writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes
are usually lost just trying to figure out how to begin.
Any suggestions or tips? Many thanks!

Feel free to surf to my webb blog ... vitilax products: http://xiaonei.in/home/space.php?uid=1358&do=blog&id=1330
Quote
 
 
0 #1518 Sharon 2020-12-28 19:35
Hello would you mind stating which blog platform you're using?
I'm going to start my own blog soon but I'm having a hard time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I'm
looking for something completely unique. P.S Sorry for
getting off-topic but I had to ask!

Here is my site - free sample cialis in australia: http://enfieldemergencyplumbers36047.ka-blogs.com/49802809/record-and-dosage-details-of-renowned-ed-treatment
Quote
 
 
0 #1517 Ruben 2020-12-28 14:51
I have read soo many articles or reviews concerning the blogger lovers however this piece of writing is genuinely a fastidious post, keep
it up.

Look at my web-site; made synthetic latex (Morris: http://suliko.in.ua/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=65745)
Quote
 
 
0 #1516 Anton 2020-12-25 03:54
At this moment I am going to do my breakfast, later than havfing my breakfast coming yet again tto read other news.


Look into my web page: Kinetic attraction thaumcraft 4: https://lasillavacia.com/users/nadiasimoi863269231
Quote
 
 
0 #1515 Donny 2020-12-25 03:41
Hi! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?
My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing a few months of hard work due to no back up.
Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?


My blog ... Photo PORN (Clarita: http://mebel-largo.ru/user/NovellaLoera/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1514 Clarissa 2020-12-24 23:37
I was just looking for this information foor a while. After 6 hours of continuous
Googleing, at last I got it in your website. I wonder what's tthe lack of Google stratgegy that don't
rank this kind off informative web sites in top of the list.
Generaly the top weeb sites are full of garbage.

Here is my web blog - one way furniture coupons: http://hitommy.net/xe/?document_srl=4845678
Quote
 
 
0 #1513 Mickey 2020-12-24 21:49
At this time I am going away to do my breakfast, after having my brdakfast coming again to read
further news.

Here is mmy web-site kinetic attraction method review: http://www.twucbardiya.Org.np/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=294008
Quote
 
 
0 #1512 Milagro 2020-12-24 20:48
Hello my loved one! I want to say that this article is awesome, great written and include almost
all significant infos. I'd like to look more posts like this .



My blog post; Gary Bartz - Do It
Again: https://hitsongs.buzz/mp3download/gary-bartz-do-it-again.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1511 Aaron 2020-12-24 20:19
I believe other website owners should tak this web
site as ann example, very clean and wonderful user genial style.


My web page ... Floraspring.Com: http://vnsharing.site/forum/member.php?u=2061532
Quote
 
 
0 #1510 Stevie 2020-12-24 20:18
Thank you so much with regard to giving uss an update on this
issue on your website. Please understand that
if a new post appears or if any adjustments occur to the current posting, I ould
cconsider reading more and focusing on how to make good using of those approaces you reveal.

Thanks for yor efforts and consideration off other folks by making your blog available.



My website; forex trading robot demon (Charissa: http://162.243.54.209//site/gin99/elgg_new/blog/view/941879/ideas-for-a-reliable-generating-plan-with-forex-trading)
Quote
 
 
0 #1509 Lasonya 2020-12-24 19:11
Definitely imagine that that yyou said. Your favourite reason seeemed to be on the internet the easiest thing tto be aware of.
I say to you, I certainly get irked even as other people think about issues that
they plainly do not know about. You controlled tto hitt the nail upon the top annd also
defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal.

Will probably be back tto get more. Thanks

my web bblog ... baby stay free - Chi: http://myvyz.ru/user/FreddieOutlaw3/,
Quote
 
 
0 #1508 Cortez 2020-12-24 17:29
I got this site from my pal who told me on the
topic of this site andd at the moment this time I am browsing this web
ppage and reeading very informative articles at this place.


my blog ... who sells dental pro 7: http://www.ieeve.com/space.php?uid=204215&do=blog&id=477270
Quote
 
 
0 #1507 Leonor 2020-12-23 21:43
Howdy! I simply would like to give you a huge thumbs
up for your excellent info you've goot here on tthis post.
I'll be returning to your site for more soon.

Also visit my blog post: voice practice for singing in tammil (Mauricio: http://www.izwc.com/space.php?uid=78106&do=blog&id=137783)
Quote
 
 
0 #1506 Stuart 2020-12-23 19:44
What's Gooing down i am nnew too this, I stumbled upon thiis I have found
It positively helpful and it has helped me out
loads. I hope to contribute & help different customers like its aided me.
Good job.

Also visit my website ... soundcloud office manager (Www.23h.online: https://Www.23h.online/blog/41633/superb-guidance-for-any-individual-from-total-newbies-to-sophisticated-on-m/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1505 Alexandra 2020-12-23 19:21
I really thankful to find this internet site on bing, just
what I wwas searching for too saved to favorites.


Feel free to visit my site; sell online (Hermine: http://multi-net.org/user/MaudeTotten2341/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1504 Gemma 2020-12-23 17:13
Can Ijust ssay what a relief tto uncover an individual whoo really understands
what they're discussing on the internet. You actually understand how
to bring a problem to likght and make it important. A lot more people have too read this and understand this
side of your story. I was surprised that you're not more popular given that yyou surely have the
gift.

my web blog: bed with storage spacee (Kayleigh: http://gsblavision.com/?option=com_k2&view=itemlist&task=user&id=81490)
Quote
 
 
0 #1503 Eduardo 2020-12-23 16:41
I am not very fantastic ith English but I find this rattling easy to read.


my web blog mobile websjte pages - Linette: http://hitommy.net/xe/SoccerWorld/4929046
-
Quote
 
 
0 #1502 Beau 2020-12-23 16:24
Veery descriptive blog, I enjoyed that a lot. Will there be a
part 2?

Here is my site: how to date a friend
girl: http://somosembajadores.com/index.php/component/k2/itemlist/user/473657
Quote
 
 
0 #1501 Karl 2020-12-23 15:09
I know this website provides quality dependent content and other information, is there any other web site which offrs these
kinds of information in quality?

Visit my web-site :: custom papers reviews: http://bsk-news.ru/user/ClariceLouque4/
Quote
 
 
0 #1500 Charity 2020-12-23 05:12
Hi there friends, how is all, and what you desire to say on the topic of this
article, in my view its genuinely amazing in support of me.


My web site: download For Free: https://mp3very.buzz/download/the-dixons-in-my-head.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1499 Epifania 2020-12-23 03:33
Hi there, after reading this remarkable artifle i am as well
happy to share my experiebce here with colleagues.
website: http://olm.nicht-wahr.de/mybb/member.php?action=profile&uid=1446605
Quote
 
 
0 #1498 Terry 2020-12-23 02:50
Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was
wondering if you knew where I could find
a captcha plugin for myy comment form? I'm using the
same blog platform as yours and I'm havig trouble finding one?
Thanks a lot!
site раскрутка сайта
в киеве: https://kulafunded.com/read-n46-a-guide-on-the-way-to-remove-google-penalty/ продвижение сайта в киеве
Quote
 
 
0 #1497 Bettye 2020-12-22 23:51
Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins tto assist with Search Engine Optimization? I'm trying to get my blog
to rank ffor some targeted keywords but I'm not seeing very good results.
If you kniw of any please share. Appreciate it!



Here iss my webpage ... Fxvoodoo Ea: http://kontinent.gorod47.ru/user/MeriWhitham95/
Quote
 
 
0 #1496 Korey 2020-12-22 23:47
I am impressed with this site, really I
am a big fan.

Have a look at my blog; pandora's box review vin dicarlo: https://www.opra.corsica/fablab/wiki/doku.php?id=profile_miguelgroce36
Quote
 
 
0 #1495 Cindy 2020-12-22 19:50
Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as
I provide credit and sources back to your blog? My bblog site is
in thee very same niche as yours and my visitors would definitely
benefiut from some of the information yoou provide here.

Please let me know if this alright with you. Many thanks!


my pqge :: lower back (Jacelyn: http://quinnverse.com/wikka/BrendatiCurtisju)
Quote
 
 
0 #1494 Nam 2020-12-22 15:37
Hey very nice blog!

My web page :: free automated forex robo (Emile: http://www.lazykoranch.info/2020/05/03/advice-and-tips-for-the-stock-exchange-novice/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1493 Stacia 2020-12-22 13:49
I visited various sites however the audio feature for audio songs present at this web page is really wonderful.


my webpage - deep sleeper - Virgie: https://nxlv.ru/user/Alycia74S15116/,
Quote
 
 
0 #1492 Florentina 2020-12-21 23:34
Wonderful blog! Do you have any tips and hnts forr aspiring writers?
I'm hoping to sttart my own site soon but I'm a little lost on everything.
Would you advise starting with a free platform like Wordpress
or go for a paid option? There are so many choices out there that I'm totally
overwhelmed .. Any tips? Kudos!

Also visit my web page ... Rfid Access Control: https://g.page/fresh-usa-inc-?gm
Quote
 
 
0 #1491 Berry 2020-12-20 23:20
I consider something really interesting about your blog so I saved to my bookmarks.


Also visiit my website: boomeran systems bankrupt -
Genia: https://thewebpirate.net/user/RandellKiel39/ -
Quote
 
 
0 #1490 Elouise 2020-12-20 17:19
Hello there! This blog post couldn't be written much better!
Looking at this post reminds me of my previous roommate!
He always kept talking about this. I'll forwward this article to him.
Fairly certain he's going too have a good read.
Thank you for sharing!

Stop by my web blog ... Richeith reviews: http://fakti.ks.ua/user/CorneliusGalvin/
Quote
 
 
0 #1489 Roslyn 2020-12-20 14:20
Hello, I enjoy reading through your article post.

I like to write a little comment to support you.

My blog - best gym wear for women (Meri: http://landenymzma.widblog.com/50209653/the-health-planet-producing-the-world-fit)
Quote
 
 
0 #1488 Edward 2020-12-20 13:28
Hello, I enjoy reading all of your post. I like to write a little comment to support you.



Feel free to visit my homepage travel channel -
Zelda: http://webmaster.biz.tr/blogs/amadostinnett-371.htm -
Quote
 
 
0 #1487 Geraldo 2020-12-20 11:07
Today, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iphone and tested to
see iff it ccan survive a 30 foot drop, jus so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPadd is now broken and she
has 83 views. I know thnis is totally off topic butt
I had to share it with someone!

my site pandora's box
review vin: http://Downtut.org/user/DeanneRolland/
Quote
 
 
0 #1486 Antonietta 2020-12-20 10:43
Ahaa, itss good discussion on the topic of this piecxe of writing here att this website, I
have read all that, so now mme also commenting here.


Here is myy web-site wp engine support number: http://www.akbard.kz/festival/user/NathanAranda350/
Quote
 
 
0 #1485 Felicia 2020-12-20 10:39
Hello there, I do think your web site may be having browser compatibility problems.

When I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening
in IE, it has some overlapping issues. I just waznted to give you a quick heads up!
Other than that, fantastic blog!

My site ... sskin treatment for pimples and marks (Augustus: http://www.Ieeve.com/space.php?uid=82851&do=blog&id=179661)
Quote
 
 
0 #1484 Charles 2020-12-20 05:14
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I've
truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts. In any case I'll be subscribing to
your rss feed and I hlpe you write again soon!

Here is my web site - sports betting guide forum: http://wellnesssc.grodno.by/user/ZQYAracely/
Quote
 
 
0 #1483 Magda 2020-12-20 05:09
After looking into a number of thhe blog artucles on your website, I
truly lioke your technique of blogging. I book-marked it to my bookmark site lisst and will be checking back
in the near future. Please visit my wdbsite as well and lett me
know what you think.

my web page betty mills reviews: http://www2.ifrn.edu.br/ojs/index.php/dialektike/comment/view/6024/0/50924
Quote
 
 
0 #1482 Darrin 2020-12-20 03:55
I too conceive thence, perfectly written post!


my homepage automated api documentation [Marilynn: http://www.s-k-p-p.de/read_blog/110381/before-investing-money-using-forex-trading,-study-the-following-tips.]
Quote
 
 
0 #1481 Marcia 2020-12-20 01:15
I wanted too thank yyou foor this wonderful read!!

I definitely loved eevery little bit oof it. I have you book-marked to check
out new stuff you post?

Feel free to surf to my web site; airhopper Forex system: http://kontinent.gorod47.ru/user/Manual9232/
Quote
 
 
0 #1480 Williams 2020-12-19 11:06
Keep up the excellent piece of work, I read few content on this site and I think
that your site is verfy interesting annd has got lots of
excellent info.

my web page - government
Auctions org: http://www.tera-soft.net/user/FranziskaFluhart/
Quote
 
 
0 #1479 Maurine 2020-12-19 07:22
I lioe this blog very much so much wonderful info.


Check out my web site: Corporate housing by owner Las vegas: http://myvyz.ru/user/AnjaDonohoe1610/
Quote
 
 
0 #1478 Shella 2020-12-18 17:28
Hello my family member! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include approximately all significant
infos. I'd like to peer extra posts like this .

Also visit my web site :: Plumber Pickerington OH: http://consultoria-seo93604.full-design.com/How-to-Hire-a-specialist-Plumber-38511254
Quote
 
 
0 #1477 Eliza 2020-12-17 04:44
Your mthod of telling the whole thing in this post
is really fastidious, all can simply understand it, Thanks a lot.

homepage: http://138.201.138.240/cgi-bin/info.php?in=
Quote
 
 
0 #1476 Caleb 2020-12-16 05:26
Wonderful beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amen your site, how could i subscribe for a blog website?
The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been a little bit acquainted oof this your broadcast provided bright clear concept
website: http://www.cooking.elemental.name/index.php?title=%C3%90%C5%B8%C3%90%C2%BE%C3%91%C3%91%E2%80%9A_N76_:_%C3%90%C5%A1%C3%90%C2%B0%C3%90%C2%B7%C3%90%C2%B8%C3%90%C2%BD%C3%90%C2%BE_%C3%90%C3%A2%E2%82%AC%E2%84%A2_%C3%90_%C3%90%C2%BE%C3%91%C3%91%C3%90%C2%B8%C3%90%C2%B8._%C3%90%C2%A1%C3%90%C2%B8%C3%91%E2%80%9A%C3%91%C6%92%C3%90%C2%B0%C3%91%E2%80%A0%C3%90%C2%B8%C3%91_%C3%90%C2%A1_%C3%90%CB%9C%C3%90%C2%B3%C3%90%C2%BE%C3%91%E2%82%AC%C3%90%C2%BD%C3%91%E2%80%B9%C3%90%C2%BC_%E2%80%98%C3%90%C2%B8%C3%90%C2%B7%C3%90%C2%BD%C3%90%C2%B5%C3%91%C3%90%C2%BE%C3%90%C2%BC_%C3%90%C3%A2%E2%82%AC%E2%84%A2_2020_%C3%90%E2%80%9C%C3%90%C2%BE%C3%90%C2%B4%C3%91%C6%92
Quote
 
 
0 #1475 Kelly 2020-12-15 15:53
Generally I do not read post on blogs, but I wish to say
that this write-up very forced me to check out and do so!
Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, quite great post.


my site - spot painting: https://Doska70.ru/user/profile/656459
Quote
 
 
0 #1474 Mayra 2020-12-14 19:37
I don't know if it's just me or if everyone else encountering issues
with your site. It appears as though some of the written text in your content are running off the screen.
Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if
this is happening to them as well? This might
be a problem with my browser because I've had this happen previously.
Thanks

my web-site ... Gaye: http://villa-stella.info/index.php?option=com_easybookreloaded&co_ntroller=entry&limit177620
Quote
 
 
0 #1473 Melba 2020-12-14 16:59
Tremendous issues here. I'm very happy to look your post.
Thanks a lot and I'm having a look forward to touch you.
Will you kindly drop me a e-mail?

Here is my website - Photo Gallery (socialmediasto re.net: http://socialmediastore.net/story6847536/ge)
Quote
 
 
0 #1472 Ambrose 2020-12-14 14:00
You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be actually something that I think I would never understand.

It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post,
I'll try to get the hang of it!

my site :: Naked Girls (pintabi.com: http://pintabi.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=34965&do=profile&from=space)
Quote
 
 
0 #1471 Allen 2020-12-14 13:18
I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the layout of your site?
Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so
people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of
text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?


my web blog - Kitchen cabinet Refinishing: http://Www.Hbbbs.cc/home.php?mod=space&uid=81969&do=profile&from=space
Quote
 
 
0 #1470 Kerrie 2020-12-14 08:52
Hello there! This is kind off off topic but I need some advice from
an established blog. Is it difficult to set up your own blog?

I'm not very techincal but I can figure thinngs out pretty quick.
I'm thinking abhout creating my own but I'm not sue where to begin. Do you have
any points or suggestions? Many thanks

my webpage :: baby eyesight development 5 weeks - Michaela: http://quinnverse.com/wikka/ClydeujDoucetteui -
Quote
 
 
0 #1469 Flynn 2020-12-14 02:33
I'm really loving the theme/design of your website.
Do youu ever run into any browser compatibility issues?
A number of my blog audience have complained about my blog not operating correctly iin Explorer but looks great in Firefox.
Do you have any suggestions to help fix tuis problem?


Also visit mmy webpage - paxforex
reviews: http://zrt.ru/auto/user/RichardNorthfiel/
Quote
 
 
0 #1468 Agnes 2020-12-14 02:02
Everything is very open with a clear description of
the issues. It was truly informative. Your site is useful.

Thanks for sharing!

my page - love signals jake troy: http://kosmetikinstitut-milla.de/user/FedericoSlaughte/
Quote
 
 
0 #1467 Noe 2020-12-14 00:37
you are really a good webmaster. The site loadingg velocity is amazing.
It seems that you're doing any unique trick. Moreover, The contents are
masterwork. you have performed a excellent
acrivity on this topic!

Also visit mmy blog - supplements for eeye health prevention strategies,
Antonio: http://myvyz.ru/user/ChanelMacfarlane/,
Quote
 
 
0 #1466 Fabian 2020-12-13 22:34
Some truloy interesting details you have written.Helped mme a lot,
just what I was searching for :D.

Feel free to visit my web blog: program
For better Vision Pdf: http://refbox.org/user/AlishaBarker3/
Quote
 
 
0 #1465 Ashleigh 2020-12-13 21:36
I have been absent for a while, but now I remember wwhy I used to love this web site.
Thank you, I will try and check back more often. How frequently you
update your web site?

Allso visit my blog - iphone app devekopers
(Julieta: http://www.apsia.it/index.php/component/k2/itemlist/user/154134)
Quote
 
 
0 #1464 Beverly 2020-12-13 10:57
Somee truly fantastic articles on this internet site, thanks for contribution.

Also visit my page - how to get flaqt abs in a day (Jerilyn: http://moneyjigsaw.com/social/profile/SonGeh6837)
Quote
 
 
0 #1463 Isabel 2020-12-12 08:15
Hello there! I could have sworn I've been to this site before but
after reading through some of the post I realized it's new to me.
Nonetheless, I'm definitely happy I found it and I'll be bookmarking
and checking back often!

my page :: fb88: https://www.amazing.bet/vn/fb88/
Quote
 
 
0 #1462 Louanne 2020-12-11 11:59
Plezse let me know if you're looking for a article author for
your blog. You have some really good articles and I believe I would be a good asset.
If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd love to write some
content for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine.

Please send me an e-mail iff interested. Thank you!
webpage: https://www.kennethknee.com/mediawiki/index.php/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BA%D0%B0_N45_%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE_%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B0%D1%8F%D1%81%D1%8C_%D0%AF_%D0%94%D1%83%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BB:_%D0%9D%D0%B5%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%AD%D1%82%D0%BE_%D0%A1%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%82%D1%8C
Quote
 
 
0 #1461 Barb 2020-12-11 11:20
Someone necessarily lend a hand to make critically posts I would state.
This is the very first time I frequented your website page and
up to now? I amazed with the analysis you made to create this particular post extraordinary.
Fantastic process!

Look into my web page; music here: https://mp3very.buzz/download/jimmy-dorsey-amp-tommy-dorsey-the-most-beautiful-girl-in-the-world.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1460 Leilani 2020-12-11 01:17
Amazing blog! Do you have any hints for aspiring
writers? I'm planning to start my own blog soon but I'm a little lost on everything.

Would you advise starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option? There are so many
choices out there that I'm totally confused ..
Any recommendations ? Kudos!

Also visit my page :: chill
aguilar - King & Castle: https://mp3-rr.buzz/download/chill-aguilar-king-amp-castle.html
Quote
 
 
0 #1459 Layla 2020-12-10 15:02
I as wll believe so, perfectly composed post!

Feel free to surf to my website :: avatrade: http://phanteks.com/forum/member.php?u=83560-TawnyaEberly
Quote
 
 
0 #1458 Jan 2020-12-10 14:09
Hi, I do believe your blog might be having web browser compatibility problems.
Whenever I lopok at your web site in Safari, it look fine however,
if opening iin I.E., it's ggot some overlapping issues.
I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
Other than that, excellent blog!

Also visit my web page: ufx
review: http://ananik-foraje-puturi.ro/index.php/component/k2/itemlist/user/209459
Quote
 
 
0 #1457 Claude 2020-12-10 11:59
Hey there! Quick question that's entirely off topic. Do
you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
My blog looks weird when browsijg from my iphone4. I'm trying to find a template or plugin that migh be able to corrrect this problem.
If you have any recommendations , please share. Many thanks!



Feeel free too surf to my web ppage ... tour sgops along (Christena: https://vnsharing.site/forum/member.php?u=2058063)
Quote
 
 
0 #1456 Anton 2020-12-10 06:03
This web site truly has all oof the information and facts I needed about this subject
and didn't know who to ask.

My site - home inspector (Denny: http://new.edushd.ru/user/DerickRowland/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1455 Carissa 2020-12-08 04:13
Everything is very open with a really clear description of the challenges.

It was really informative. Your site is useful. Thank you for sharing!



Here is my webpage - here (Maribel: http://technomark.ca/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=mp3-rr.buzz%2Fdownload%2Fsparrows-come-back-to-me.html)
Quote
 
 
0 #1454 Ouida 2020-12-08 03:31
It's awesome in support of me to have a web site, which is good in favor of
my knowledge. thanks admin

my homepage: this; Josette: https://www.google.com.kh/url?sa=t&url=https://mp3very.buzz/download/walkabout-you-smoke-too-many-cigarettes.html,
Quote
 
 
0 #1453 Scot 2020-12-08 03:23
If some one needs to be updated with hottest technologies after that hee must be visit this site and be up to date every day.


Feeel free to visit myy website: tung oil finish: http://mdiawiki.hslsoft.com/index.php?title=Hemp_-_Discover_The_Healing_Properties_Of_The_Herb_Part_1
Quote
 
 
0 #1452 Kandi 2020-12-07 18:16
Thank you for your website post. Jones and I happen to be saving to
buy a new publication on this theme and your short article has made uss all
to save all of our money. Your thinking really responded all our problems.
In fact, over what we hhad acknowledged in advance of the time we ran into your amazing
blog. I no loonger have doubts along with a troubled mind bescause you have attended to
our own needs inn thus article. Thanks

Here is my web page: Cannabidiol: http://www.talexstudio.com/games/mobile-ro-idle-poring-howto-angeling/
Quote
 
 
0 #1451 Soila 2020-12-07 02:19
Hello.This article wwas extremely motivating, particularly because I was looking for thougts on this issuye last Friday.


my web site forex trading tutorials videos (Rogelio: http://demo.sparta.vps-private.net/blog/secrets-becoming-effective-currency-trader)
Quote
 
 
0 #1450 Waylon 2020-12-06 16:31
Thanks for sharing your thoughts about Libre. Regards

my site ... forex trading systems reviews ratings (Bethany: http://Polyinform.Com.ua/user/JodySmithson758/)
Quote
 
 
0 #1449 Lawanna 2020-12-06 14:36
Hello. splendid job. I did not imagine this.
This is a excellent story. Thanks!

my web siite ... Buybackworld Near Me: http://new.edushd.ru/user/Reynaldo31I/
Quote
 
 
0 #1448 Deanna 2020-12-06 13:38
Having rsad this I believed it was very enlightening.
I appreciate you finding the time and energy to put this article together.
I once again find myself spending a llot of time both reading and posting comments.
But so what, it was still wortgh it!

Have a look at my website: hair follicles: https://wiki506.buildtools.com/index.php/How_Generate_Hemp_Earrings_With_Tassels
Quote
 
 
0 #1447 Zack 2020-12-06 09:53
Hey this is kinda of off topic but I wass wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG
editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I'm starting a blog soon but have no coding
experience so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience.
Any help would bbe greatly appreciated!

Feel free to surf to my website - kinetic attraction member login: https://Www.Tech.Adventuredrivendesign.com/SelinadvRivenburgrn
Quote
 
 
0 #1446 Salvador 2020-12-06 09:38
This piecce of writing will help the internet viewers for setting up
new weblog or evben a weblog from start tto end.

Feel free to sujrf to my web blog - site pages [Dale: https://vnsharing.site/forum/member.php?u=2050200]
Quote
 
 
0 #1445 Devin 2020-12-06 07:23
Hey there! This is my first comment here so I justt wanted too give
a quick shout out andd say I reallpy ehjoy reading through your
articles. Can yoou recommend any otther blogs/websites/forums that deal with the
same subjects? Thanks!

Feel free to visit my blog post - studybay: http://www.goldenlines.ae/take-advantage-of-this-guidance-when-you-are-likely-to-university/
Quote
 
 
0 #1444 Eartha 2020-12-06 06:41
We are a group of volunteers andd opening a brand new scheme inn our community.
Your site offered us with helpful information to work on. Yoou have performmed a formidsable
activity and our wholee community will likely be grateful to you.


Also visit my web site bonus bagging legal: https://www.tech.Adventuredrivendesign.com/EnidncGriffinir
Quote
 
 
0 #1443 Darryl 2020-12-06 00:28
I am not very wonderful with English but I fiond this real easy too interpret.



Have a look at mmy blog post:internet marketing services
(Lazaro: http://www.s-k-p-p.de/read_blog/96683/have-more-customers-with-website-marketing)
Quote
 
 
0 #1442 Maximo 2020-12-05 22:21
We are a bunch of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community.
Your site offered us with valuable infoo to work on. You've performed a formidable job and our whole community might be grateful to you.


Also visit my web page; cheapest wordpress (Arnoldo: http://demo.sparta.Vps-private.net/blog/take-full-advantage-your-operating-blog-experience-these-wordpress-recommendations)
Quote
 

Add comment


Security code
Refresh

Eso de culpar al 'bloqueo' ya no encuent

Indicado en la materia

Por Juan Antonio Blanco.- Un pilar esencial para la credibilidad y sostenimiento del régimen totalitario cubano ha sido la promoción de falsas narrativas para consumo nacional e internacional. Pero hay crecientes evidencias de qu...

Invertir en Cuba

Indicado en la materia

Por MANUEL HERNÁNDEZ.-  El habanero Manuel Hernández es el ganador del primer premio del concurso Empresario Cubano, organizado por el Observatorio Cubano de Conflictos y Apretaste! El certamen consistía en aconsejar a un...

Las dictaduras castrochavistas buscan ca

Indicado en la materia

Por Carlos Sánchez Berzain.- El siglo XXI en las Américas esta marcado por la recreación del castrismo convertido en castrochavismo, para la de agresión a las democracias y la simulación política de...

La 'Tarea Ordenamiento' desincentiva la

Indicado en la materia

Por RAFAELA CRUZ.-  La agricultura es un sector capital de la nación cubana por lo que representa para el millón de personas que en ella labora y lo que implica para los 11 mi...

La tormenta perfecta: San Isidro más la

Indicado en la materia

Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.-  No es posible un ordenamiento monetario sin oferta de bienes o servicios. La validez de cualquier moneda se decide en el mercado, no en un escritorio burocrático. A ...

El “Isidrazo” y la crisis de legitimidad

Indicado en la materia

Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.-  En medio de semejante escenario degradante, un grupo de jóvenes artistas de un barrio marginal habanero, muchachos sin camisa y con gorra de peloteros, le plantan cara al...

San Isidro: Acabar con el ninguneo del g

Indicado en la materia

Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.-  En la carta que el “Movimiento 27N” ha hecho llegar a los medios de comunicación, se aclara que la discusión no es sobre “cultura” es sobre “libertad po...